(MENAFN- Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)) By Ronald Baygents
WASHINGTON, May 15 (KUNA) -- The likely only way to achieve success during the problematic state visit at the White House on Tuesday between President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is for Trump to provide Erdogan with an 'iron-clad guarantee' that Syrian Kurdish fighters will return to their 'pre-Raqqa boundaries' after the upcoming military offensive to seize the symbolic capital of the so-called Islamic State (IS).
That is the conclusion of Henri Barkey, director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
If the White House can 'sweet coat' this issue by emphasizing that the role of the US-backed Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in the Raqqa assault will be 'very limited,' then the US and Turkish delegations may be able to claim a diplomatic achievement after the Trump-Erdogan meeting, Barkey said in an interview with KUNA.
However, given the current complicated and acrimonious state of US-Turkish relations, Barkey said, 'This meeting should not have taken place, because the lack of agreement is so severe.' Last week, Trump approved a plan to directly arm the YPG, which makes up the largest share of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the main military group fighting to overthrow the Syrian regime of President Bashar A-Assad in the six-year Syrian civil war.
Erdogan subsequently said he hoped the US would reverse that decision. Turkey views the YPG as an existential threat, as the YPG is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state and is classified as a terrorist group by Turkey and the US.
Turkish officials last week told senior US national security officials that Turkey reserves the right to take additional military action against Syrian Kurdish fighters allied with the US, according to a senior Turkish official in Istanbul.
Turkey has already conducted limited strikes against those fighters in northern Syria in recent weeks, prompting complaints from US officials because such actions complicate the planned offensive on Raqqa.
But the US Defense Department is now 'in the driver's seat' on the Raqqa planning, Barkey noted, as it sees no alternative to arming the YPG, without whom 'Raqqa will not fall.' The YPG has 'amazing fighters,' Barkey noted.
Trump is 'very anxious' to quickly engineer the fall of Raqqa and defeat IS within three to four months, so he can show how much better he is than former President Barack Obama when it comes to successfully concluding the nearly three-year effort to defeat IS, Barkey said.
While Erdogan has suggested alternative ways to recapture Raqqa from IS, including the use of Turkish forces in the campaign, the Pentagon is 'unimpressed' with the Turks' military effectiveness, Barkey noted.
Barkey predicted that Syrian Kurds will 'suffer huge losses' in the Raqqa operation, as the SDF will likely have to maneuver through IS-planted minefields and other obstacles leading into the city.
To assuage Erdogan's concerns, US officials have tried to assure Turkey that Kurdish fighters will not play a role in stabilizing Raqqa after the offensive, leaving that task to local Arabs.
The YPG is not interested in remaining in Raqqa, which is primarily Arabic, Barkey noted, but wants to go to Kurdish areas of northwest Syria just south of the Turkish border.
However, Arabic contingents of the SDF 'are not up to the task' of maintaining order in Raqqa, Barkey said, 'so then what? That is the dilemma.' The other primary remaining topics in the Erdogan-Trump talks are expected to revolve around Erdogan's desire for the US to extradite Fethullah Gulen, a self-exiled Islamic cleric residing in Pennsylvania who Ankara accuses of masterminding the failed coup attempt against Erdogan last July; and the release of Reza Zarrab, a Turkish gold trader and friend of Erdogan who is being held in a Manhattan jail, Barkey said.
Barkey's most recent scholarly works include 'Turkey's Syria Predicament' and 'Iraq, Its Neighbors and the United States.' (end) rm.rk
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