Talking Points:
Crude oil prices rise on hopes for OPEC output cut extension Gold prices stall near February highs, sizing up Fed outlook Comments from Iraq Energy Forum, ISM data in focus ahead Crude oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive session amid reports citing Kuwait's energy minister Issam Almarzooq as saying his country and other key producers favor extending the production cut deal that OPEC struck with key non-cartel producers late last year. The spotlight now turns to the Iraq Energy Forum, where many of the principles to the accord have gathered.
Already, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo has opined from the sidelines of the gathering in Baghdad, saying coordinated efforts to cut output are working to work down bloated inventories. That seems to have passed unnoticed by traders but there remains the very real possibility that more forward-looking rhetoric from the sidelines for the summit will prove market-marking.
Gold prices are in digestion mode having stalled after testing swing highs near $1260/oz. The outlook for Fed monetary policy remains critical, particularly as markets regain sensitivity to data flow. That puts the spotlight on the US ISM manufacturing survey in the near term. The pace of factory-sector growth is expected slow, which may cool rate hike bets and offer a near-term lift to the yellow metal.
What will drive crude oil and gold trends in the second quarter? See our forecasts and find out!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices have stalled near late-February highs, with a double top chart setup potentially in the works. From here, a break below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1236.83 on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 1220.17. Critical resistance remains at 1263.87, the intersection of the February 27 high and a falling trend line set from early July 2016.
Chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Crude oil prices are on their longest winning streak in two months. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 52.04 targets the 50% level at 53.57. Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fib at 50.14 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% expansion at 48.98.
Chart created using TradingView
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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